(Note: this blog was initially published on the 19th June 2020 on LinkedIn; however due to website maintenance I was not able to post on this page until this time).

OK, I’ll admit it, I’m officially worried now.

Today is the 19th June, 15 days away from the proposed reopening of the hospitality sector……and we still have no idea what the actual government guidelines are. Frankly it’s becoming nothing short of a disaster.

My worry isn’t centred on me (although clearly an open and servicing sector would benefit my business) but it’s for all those who are potentially throwing away valuable cash-flow, spending it on resources to get trading again that they might not need come opening time, and why is this, because we're STILL waiting on the Government guidance for reopening the sector.

Are you prepared?

How many businesses think they’re sitting pretty? How many have been working on their reopening plans for weeks now and are feeling pretty good about being ahead of the 8-ball with July 4th in mind; sitting there with all of the ‘2 metre’ distancing signage in place for example – but what happens if the guidance says 1.5 metres or even 1 metre. How does that signage spend look now that it needs reprinting?

Only last week a Government ‘leak’ of the proposed guidelines suggested that 2 metres wouldn’t be required, in fact neither 1.5 metres or even 1 metre would be the required distancing measures, it would be a case-by-case ‘reasonable distance’. Then days later on one hand the Prime Minister suggests we could scrap the 2 metre rule, on the other hand the Health Minister says ‘not likely’. What is going on?!

Of course it’s not the fault of that business sitting there with their 2 metre signage up and in place ready to rock – they have their plan and they’re executing it proactively, but what if being proactive isn’t the best course of action right now?

What other options are there?

I took a call from a client 3 weeks ago who wanted support with a number of pre-reopening measures and my words to him then would echo my thoughts today – ‘let’s just wait and see what the guidelines say first – let’s not spend any money until we know you have to. Little did I know then that we still wouldn't know today what that guidance is!

Things are so up in the air that if the senior Government cabinet can’t agree on safety measures and then publish a coordinated guidance plan for reopening the sector what are we to do? Sit on our hands and just wait? And therein lies the problem.

With 15 days to go until we reach the red line of July 4th, do we even know that is the red line date? Never mind the date, PPE requirements, risk assessment requirements, social distancing measures, venue capacity guidelines, do we need separate entrances/exits, what about wet-led vertical drinking venue requirements vs food led venue requirements – the 'uncertainty' list goes on and on.

And what about those businesses who have already brought members of their Team back from furlough? The general consensus was that we would need 3 weeks to get our venues ship shape for opening. Businesses have already reversed furlough and are now paying for labour out of their own pockets with preparation for the 4th July in mind, spending precious cash flow on having their people back at work. Are we all that confident in the 4th July red line that we’re willing to give up having the Government pay our Teams without any firm opening date commitment or having published guidelines on the matter?

The impending rent apocalypse

But the guidance isn’t the only thing worrying me. As we near the end of June we’re entering another rent collection period. Just before I sat down to write this blog news came down the pipe that the Government had extended the anti-eviction measures for business until the 30th September; good news on the face of it.

Yet still I’m worried we’re just kicking the can down the street without tackling head on the growing rent crisis.

Let’s be frank, the code of practise that was released a couple of weeks back to provide clarity and guidance for landlords and tenants is just a waste of everybody’s time. The guidance to work together to find a common solution to the issue of deferred rent is nothing more than a voluntary code at the end of the day. If you’re a progressive landlord looking to work with your tenants to build a mutual plan for both parties to navigate the COVID crisis then the code of practise will have little impact on you. If you’re at the opposite end of the spectrum, then again the code will impact you even less, you’re still going to press on to get the money you’re owed regardless of the damage it might cause to your tenants. The code isn’t going to positively impact either side of the argument.

Yes todays news is positive, it will give parties time to try and find solutions, but for others it is just delaying the inevitable and then all the good work done by the Job Retention Scheme and various grants and loans will all be for nought as businesses fold under the growing burden of deferred rents due. Painting this as a battle between landlords and tenants isn't helping anyone either. Neither party are responsible for the situation either side finds themselves in. Inflammatory language and confrontational stances isn't going to solve this issue, but strong Government intervention would.

Over to you Mr Prime Minister

Now this isn’t a political piece, I’m not taking a swipe at the Conservative Party. If it was Labour in Government I’m pretty sure we’d all find fault in their handling of the pandemic in one form or another. Nor is this a swipe at the Prime Minister or his Cabinet who I genuinely have empathy for; whoever was in power right now would be trying their best to make this up as they go along – there’s no manual for governing during a pandemic (although they better be writing one now and learning from their mistakes as they go); but patience and empathy only go so far and our sector needs strong guidance from our elected officials and we need it NOW – today!

Our supply chain needs notice of what reopening date we are definitively working to; brewers need time to ensure they can meet the requirements for fresh product; we need to know what it is we’re training our Teams in to adhere to the guidance; we need to know what to spend those precious pennies on to be compliant – and we need to know now.

If not today, if it is Monday, then those are another 3 days lost, potentially more money spent/wasted, 3 more days of uncertainty. Yep, I’m worried. I’ve all my fingers crossed for some good news, and it’s needed soon otherwise I’m fearful there will be many within our sector, many within our local communities, that have already opened their doors for the last time.

S.O.S

So Mr Prime Minister, this is my S.O.S to you - Save Our Sector. Whatever the guidance is just publish it - today. It is benefitting nobody by keeping us in the dark. Let us see what we're working with, what we're up against and we'll find a way to make it work. We're a resilient bunch in hospitality but what we're not are mind readers. Let's get this guidance out in the open and give us a fighting chance at reopening our doors again - after that, let's talk rent.

See you at the bar (hopefully soon!!)…..

Mark

www.whamconsultancy.com

mark@whamconsultancy.com